Ron Dennis

WBT's Ron Dennis interviews Zaga Novakovic on what it's like trying to find a hotspot when you're really off the beaten track.

Zaga Novakovic is a traveler both in the physical world and in time. She is comfortable in Thailand, in Paris, and in the future. One of her jobs is looking into the future of wireless networking, or, more accurately, looking into our future to see how Wi-Fi fits into it. Zaga's report is available for several thousand dollars at the Mind Commerce Web site at www.mindcommerce.com and it is well worth the fee. I managed to get an excerpt of this article and to talk with Zaga between her trips around the world.

I first met Zaga when she sent me an e-mail saying, "I just devoured your articles in Wireless Business & Technology and had to write you immediately." That certainly got my attention since I love fan mail (hint: write to me). Then she tore my articles to pieces with a few choice sentences!

I had written about Vivato's ability to provide wireless access to Golden Gate Park with just two antennas. "Big deal!" said Zaga. "Don't forget that the 11Mbps or whatever speed your 802.11x has is a shared resource."

She's right, of course. We could provide access to Golden Gate Park, but at 11Mbps only a few people could actually use it. Otherwise access speed would drop to nothing! Of course Vivato (the subject of my article) had answers involving multiple radios and gigabit connections, etc., but I hadn't put that in my article. I was fazed and humbled!

I had to admire her in spite of (or more likely because of) my embarrassment. Zaga had worked with Ericsson for six years as senior product manager for 3G and business development manager for packet data. She was engaged in forecasting, product development, 3G business strategy development, fraud prevention, and had developed business in the areas of WLAN and AAA. It was all good experience for her independent consultant career that followed. Ericsson also fed Zaga's travel bug by sending her to work with operators all over the world, particularly in Asia and Latin America. I was actually flattered that someone with her resumé took the time to humble me.

 
Zaga Novakovic

Plus, it was the beginning of a great e-mail train. I get messages from Zaga with titles like, "Back from Paris," or "Off to Bangkok." She likes to travel to exotic places, find their technologies, and interpret them for the rest of us. "It's an intuitive skill backed up by research. I also do a lot of entrepreneurial things such as jewelry design and have launched a line of exotic skin handbags that will debut in the fall at a major exclusive department store."

But it's not all work. Last year I received this message from her, "Actually, I am spending a few months on a beach in the south of Thailand - my favorite beach in the whole world, which in the eight years since I've discovered it, has gone from being almost totally free of tourists to being over-touristed, and has Internet access! (sigh). I came during rainy season as it seems the only way to avoid tourists. The water is emerald green, there are many caves you can swim into, and they are dry and covered in crystals, which makes them look diamond-like. Actually, I am sort of marooned to be honest because thankfully the area is not accessible by car and with the stormy seas, [there are] no boats either."

Zaga's white paper on wireless hotspots, titled "pWLAN Case Studies" actually started with her masters' thesis about the future of 3G and WLAN. "That paper got picked up by a conference in Washington, and I was contacted by a fellow who wanted to sell it on the Internet. We since made an agreement for me to update and shrink the thing, as I had a lot of interviews with people like Charlie Perkins, and I had conducted a survey in NA, Europe, and Asia to assess the actual philosophy of mobile phone usage and henceforth the growth patterns."

I asked her how she went about gathering the information for the paper. "A lot of it was phone interviews, and Internet, magazine, and newspaper research. We also went to a few hotspots in person. We developed questions that would help reflect back to the issue of whether a hotspot is useful and has a future. Not on technical issues which after a while even a monkey could master."

Well, this monkey wasn't going to get caught talking about technology! I went rapid fire. "Where was the strangest place you found a hotspot? Least useful hotspot? Most useful hotspot?"

"Least useful would be a beach in Asia that otherwise had just coconut trees and monkeys," replied Zaga. "The most useful hotspot would be at Panera, mostly because it's free and very easy to log on to. Least useful would probably be a McDonald's hotspot, mainly because they are not free and have no specialized content. But really, usefulness to me is a function of price and ease of log-in and speed."

"My summary," Zaga continued, "and overall thoughts on this issue are that very few companies will exist within two years. T-Mobile will be the giant unless someone pulls the rug out by offering the service free or nearly free as part of a bundled package with mobile service or other communication service. People will demand that hotspot service get cheaper and cheaper. It's the American way. Previously I always thought that hotspots would take off when there was content available that would utilize the speed, but now I'm not sure, having reflected on the fact that in the U.S. the number one concern is money not fancy features, even in the mobile world. Witness the slower uptake of SMS and other data services than in Europe and Asia. I think hotspots will go the way of mobile service. They need to get cheaper. And those who offer it need to realize it's an extension of their service, part of the portfolio, not a revolution. T-Mobile will one day make money, but even if they don't they are setting the standard.

What's in the future for Zaga? "We have a new paper coming out (also available from Mind Commerce) covering branding and usability. The hotspot companies are so consumed with the technical aspects and cutting deals with the locations that they are missing the branding and marketing boat. Except for T-Mobile. They are doing a pretty good job.

"And more travel. I really do love to travel."

Now, I am pleased to report, in addition to her consulting projects, her fashion products, and her travel obsession, Zaga has agreed to write for Wireless Business & Technology! Expect her to talk about topics like:

• Hotspotting as an evolution, not revolution (meaning that it's an extension of the services that customers already have rather than a revolutionary application).
• Does hotspotting bring much value to the locale that's hosting it at this point in the game?
• Who is the best hotspot operator out there now and why?

Note from the editor
Zaga has obviously had quite an impact on our Ron (providing feedback to our writers can have this effect) and we're looking forward to hearing more from her in the future. In the meantime, we thought we'd take the opportunity to take a close look at her report, "Public Access WLAN Case Studies," with a critical eye. Reports of this type are very expensive, and knowing what you're getting is important if you're going to make such a financial commitment.

The report starts with a summary of Wi-Fi technologies and their place in the market, which should be familiar ground to anyone buying the report, but makes for background. Her dismissal of 3G technologies is slightly off-hand, failing to relate the always-on connectivity and the new generation of applications it makes possible, but to expect a report on Wi-Fi to include analysis of 3G would be unrealistic.

There then follows a very comprehensive analysis of companies running Wi-Fi hotspots around the world, with details of their offerings including pricing, effectiveness, and recommendations for that company's future strategy. While Zega's recommendations on company strategy may be argued, the quality and depth of information is indisputable. The pure quantity of information demonstrates the work required to compile it, and even in such a fast-moving field it remains remarkably accurate.

For anyone thinking of launching into the Wi-Fi provisioning business, Public Access WLAN Case Studies are a must-buy, though a good deal of luck might be necessary too. For those looking at developing and deploying applications suited to Wi-Fi connectivity, this report could well provide substantive support for a business case (or demonstrate the futility of that same business idea) and is well worth considering. Those already in the business of deploying Wi-Fi might be interested in Zega's recommendations, though they may already be aware of the competitive landscape of the territories in which they are active. It may provide useful guidance for those looking to expand into new territories, saving research time exploring competitors in that region.

Keeping the information up to date will be a challenge, but there is certainly no-one more familiar with the Wi-Fi business worldwide. While those who need the information in the report may be small in number, it's clear the information would be of immense value to them. - B.R.